A top Latino polling firm released a model on Thursday that projected Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would receive the largest portion of the Hispanic vote in recorded history in the upcoming November 8 election.
The model, from Latino Decisions, showed Clinton with 82% of projected Latino support. Republican nominee Donald Trump received 15% of Latino support in the forecast, and third-party options garnered just 3% of the overall share.
The spread would be greater than the previous widest differential, which occurred in the 1996 election. That year, former President Bill Clinton bested Republican nominee Bob Dole 72% to 21% among Latino voters. Records on Latino voting preferences stretches back to the 1980 election, per Latino Decisions.
“We are highly confident that — barring any major unforeseen change — Trump’s Latino vote will fall between 9.5% and 20.5%,” Justin H. Gross, the chief statistician at Latino Decisions and assistant professor of political science at UMass-Amherst, said in a statement.
“Furthermore, support for third-party candidates seems to be lagging behind the electorate at large this election season, making it extremely likely that we will see Clinton’s share of the Latino vote surpass the 71% Obama earned in 2012 and the 72% Bill Clinton earned in 1996,” he continued. “Today, our model estimates 82% vote for Clinton and we are highly confident that it will be somewhere between 76.5% and 87.5%.”
The margin of error in the model is 5.5 percentage points.
Trump has come under fire along the campaign trail for comments he made about immigrants who illegally immigrated to the country from Latin America, namely Mexico, when he launched his campaign. In that speech, Trump alleged Mexico was sending “rapists” and other criminals across the border.
Trump has also championed building a massive wall along the US-Mexico border.
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