5 Important Economic Reports Coming Today, Including An Update On Deleveraging


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We have a decent amount of economic data coming out of the U.S. today. Here’s a quick preview with some commentary from High Frequency Economics Jim O’Sullivan:

  • Initial Jobless Claims (3/3)/8:30 EST Consensus:  355K, following 344K.  HFE:  350K.  The trend appears to have dropped to a 350-to-360K range from 360-to- 370K at year-end.
  • International Trade (1)/8:30 EST Consensus:  -$42.6B, following -$38.5B.  HFE:  -$41.0B.   Last month’s $10.1B decline in the deficit was probably only partly reversed, led by higher oil prices.
  • Productivity And Unit labour Costs (Q4r)/8:30 EST Consensus:  Revised productivity -1.6%, up from -2.0%, unit  labour costs 4.3%, down from 4.5%.  HFE:  -1.6%, 4.5%.  Revisions are likely to be minimal, similar to the pattern in GDP.
  • Fed Flow Of Funds (Q4)/12:00 EST Net worth likely rose in Q4, led by housing wealth. The Q1 gain should be larger, led by equities.
  • Consumer Credit (1)/15:00 EST Consensus:  $14.7B, following $14.6B.  HFE:  $12.0B.  Bank lending data suggest some slowing in January.

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