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So you know about the fiscal cliff: That’s the scene at the end of 2012 when we get tax hikes, spending cuts, and a debt ceiling showdown all the time. You can read all about it here.The fact that we have this huge election in November complicates predicting how it turns out because you don’t know who will control Congress or The White House.
If Romney wins, and the GOP sweeps, then probably much of it will be defused. If Obama wins and Republicans do well in Congress, then you’ve got major gridlock.
But here’s a scenario that we haven’t seen one analyst talk about yet…
As Michael Brendan Dougherty points out, it’s very easy to imagine Romney winning the popular vote and Barack Obama winning the electoral college. Inf act, the electoral college map is VERY favourable to Obama. This scenario is definitely possible and it would be the fiscal cliff Black Swan.
If you thought Congressional Republicans were going to be intransigent on the debt ceiling, multiply that by 10x. Any goodwill would be dead as the Republicans would feel a mandate based on the desires of the majority of the people, and Obama would be weak.
It would be NUTS!
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