Friday market updates are the best updates.
– The Chicago PMI was the big news overnight with a jump the size of which has not been seen for 30 years. The index leapt to 65.9 in October from 55.7 in September and way above the 54.5 the punditry expected. The data looks too big and too good to be true but orders rose, production surged and the backlog leapt, all indicating that at least in Chicago the recent political disruption hasn’t hurt.
– This along with high unemployment (12.2% EU wide) and low inflation (0.7% yoy v 1.1% expected) knocked the euro for six and it is trading at 1.3589 this morning from a high of 1.3738 yesterday and a loss of 1.06%.
– On other Forex markets, the US dollar wasn’t quite as dominant, basically flat against the pound (1.6040) around mid-range for the day. USDJPY fell 0.19% to 98.31, while the Aussie rallied to 0.9525 after the super strong Building Approvals data yesterday. It then gave back the gains as the euro slipped and it sits at 94.61 this morning, down 0.18% day-on-day.
– On stock markets, the US rallied initially but was unable to hold onto the gains with the Dow down 0.42%, Nasdaq off 0.27% and the S&P 500 off 6 points to 1757 but 12 points off the high for a loss of 0.36%.
– Across the Atlantic, the FTSE closed lower, down 0.69%, but continental European markets were all higher with the DAX up 0.26% and the CAC rising 0.61%. Milan rose 0.97% and the IBEX in Madrid rose 1.32%.
– Here at home the SPI 200 contract on the Sydney Futures Exchange rose 3 points, while on the Bond boards, the 3’s lost 3 points and the 10’s 4, reflecting the slightly softer tone in US markets where the 10’s closed up a point but off their highs at 2.55%. Some good news though on US interest rates, with 30-year mortgage rates at 4.1% – the lowest since June.
– On commodity markets, Gold came under pressure again losing $25 to $1323 oz for a loss of 1.86%. Silver tanked, losing 4.85% while Nymex Crude fell 0.5% bck to $96.29. On the Ags, Corn fell 0.46%, Soybeans were 0.54% lower and Wheat dropped 1.19%.
On the data front, the new month brings with it the new run of Manufacturing PMI’s around the world, with the AiG performance of manufacturing in AUstralia along with PPI. In China, we get both the HSBC and the NBS manufacturing PMI’s before UK, Brazilian and US Markit PMI and ISM data over the course of the evening.