– Greece is back in the news this morning as it runs out of money and has no way to comply with its repayment obligations in June without some sort of a deal. That appears to be what is coming with reports last night a deal is on the table and with comments from Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis that a deal could be found within a week gives some hope. But NAB co-head of currency strategy Ray Attrill says Varoufakis’ latest comments are being treated with “with probably justified skepticism.”
– That’s hurt the Euro, which is back at 1.13 and has given the US dollar a lift, driving the Aussie back below 80 cents this morning. Attrill reckons that will bring a smile to the face of RBA board members but there is some wood to chop technically before the Aussie breaks its recent uptrend. Sterling pulled back and USDJPY is back up near 1.20.
– I haven’t got to stocks yet because even though they hit new all-time highs in the US and were mostly stronger in Europe it’s the bond market moves which have once again caught my eye. US Treasuries sold off 9 basis points to 2.24%. Italian and Spanish bonds sold off 11 points each and UK 10 year gilts rose 7 points to 1.96%. German 10’s are up 2 points to 0.65% while Aussie 10 year bonds, having traded back below 2.90% yesterday afternoon, are now back up 8 points to 2.96%.
– On the data front last night home builder sentiment in the US fell below expectations. It’s another miss in recent data with a print of 54 against expectations of a rise to 57 from 56 last month.
Here’s the overnight scoreboard (8am AEST):
- Dow Jones up 0.14% to 18,298
- Nasdaq up 0.6% to 5,078
- S&P 500 up 0.3% to 2,129
- London (FTSE 100) up 0.12% to 6,986
- Frankfurt (DAX) up 1.29% to 11,594
- Paris (CAC) up 0.37% to 5,012
- Tokyo (Nikkei) 19,890
- Shanghai (composite) down 0.59% to 4,283
- Hong Kong (Hang Seng) down 0.83% to 27,591
- ASX Futures Overnight (SPI June) +20 to 5,685
- AUDUSD: 0.7988
- EURUSD: 1.1314
- USDJPY: 119.97
- GBPUSD: 1.5652
- USDCAD: 1.2154
- Crude: $59.43
- Gold: $1,225
- Dalian Iron Ore (September): 419.5
– The local market came under heavy selling yesterday as BHP spin off South 32 undershot expectations, trading at the lower end of the expected range. The banks were also under intense pressure with ANZ and Westpac down around 2.5%, the Commonwealth down 2% and the NAB a less aggressive 1.5%. We also saw another aggressive technical reversal off the bottom of the old trading channel from earlier this year. But overnight moves offshore and the rally in futures suggest a better day. One thing worth noting is the globe’s top banking regulator has signalled that the pressure will remain on Australian banks overnight.
– In Asia yesterday it was a mixed day. Tokyo was up but Shanghai down. Just noise really. But there was one excellent piece of news for the Chinese economy with the stabilisation of the house price fall at -6.1% giving Westpac’s Phat Dragon room to say the worst of China’s property slowdown is behind us.
– On commodity markets crude is slowly slipping away. At $59.49 a barrel it has not yet broken the uptrend but it is very close. Watch this space particularly given Saudi Arabia seems to have declared war on US oil. Gold has rallied a little to $1225 an ounce. Copper dipped a little to $2.93.
– On the data front today the RBA Minutes are out at 11.30 and even though we know everything we need to now, or at least should after the SoMP, the market will be watching them closely. Before that we get the first update of the ANZ weekly consumer confidence after the budget at 9.30am. Globally CPI and or PPI is being released in New Zealand, the UK and EU. The ZEW survey is out in Germany and in the US tonight we see housing starts and building permits along with the Redbook index.
And now from CMC Markets’ Ric Spooner is today’s Stock of the Day
Caltex has a prospect of joining the ranks of the “yield” stocks given the recent lift in its dividend payout ratio to 60% and its relatively defensive profile as the retailer of a consumer staple.
With that in mind, I have Caltex as a stock to watch after it bounced neatly off its 200 day moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level yesterday. If it can consolidate around here, this support may prove to be a spring board to higher prices.
Ric Spooner, chief market analyst, CMC Markets
You can follow Ric on Twitter @ricspooner_CMC
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