Welcome to your morning market update, where things are less tense than yesterday.
– You just can’t kill this bull market in US stocks with a stick. It seems that each reversal only last one or a few days at most before traders shrug their shoulders and hit the buy button once again. The change in sentiment occurred late in Australian trade yesterday when Russian war games ended and the troops were send back to base. FX markets reacted aggressively and Stock futures trading in Asia leapt higher as fear receded of all-out war.
– So the scene was set for a rally in European and US equities which has taken the S&P 500, remarkably it seems, to a new all time intra-day and at the close it sits at 1,874 up 28 points for a gain of 1.53%. The Dow is similarly ebullient up 1.41% and the Nasdaq is sweeping all before it up 1.75%.
– In Europe, the FTSE rose 1.72% but it was the continental bourses which surged the most. The DAX rose 2.46%, the CAC rose 2.45% while stocks in Madrid rose 2.51% and in Milan, 3.62%.
– On the ASX Futures market overnight the SPI 200 March contract surged 45 points to 5449.
– On global FX markets, the yen is the big loser as traders are taking more risks. In the past 15 hours, USDJPY rose to 102.25 for a gain by the US over the yen of 0.79%. EURJPY is also sharply higher, catching your correspondent short, but the euro and GBP for all the light and smoke in the past 24 hours are largely unchanged at 1.3734 and 1.6673 respectively. The Aussie likewise is barely moved after an initial fall following the RBA’s note that the Aussie was still high by historical standards yesterday afternoon. It has become custom recently and just found buyers lurking.
– On commodity markets, Gold reversed sharply as tension about tensions eased (although there is little evidence Putin is actually backing off) and sits at $1334 this morning after a high around $1350 yesterday. Nymex crude backed off as well, losing 1.64% to $103.20 Bbl and Copper bounced 4 cents to $3.26 lb. The situatation in the Ags pits remains tense with Corn up 2.75%, Wheat up 2.07% and Soybeans rising 0.76%.
On the data front today, the ABS will release the Q4 GDP at 11.30am AEDT but before that we’ll get the AiG performance of services index, which then leads into the global run of Markit and HSBC services indices for the globe. European retail sales will be important, as will the ADP employment change in the run-up to non-farms on Friday night.
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An now from CMC Markets Ric Spooner is today’s Stock of the day
NAB’s share price faltered recently when its latest quarterly report left the market underwhelmed.
Having rallied 11% in a near vertical rise over the 2 weeks prior to the report, NAB gapped lower on the day of release despite a generally solid outcome as it seems the market had been looking for better cost control than NAB managed to achieve.
Since then the NAB has moved broadly sideways in a choppy market.
From a chartists point of view all this has served to create a classic “pennant” pattern. From here, chartists would generally see a clear break through the top of the pennant resistance line as an indication that the steep uptrend leading into it might be set to resume.
Ric Spooner, Chief Market Analyst CMC Markets
You can follow Ric on Twitter @ricspooner_CMC