Here's Your 20-Second Guide To What Aussie Traders Will Be Talking About This Morning

Getty/Scott Olson

– Data from the US and Europe was interesting overnight with German GDP printing 0.4% qoq and 1.3% yoy as expected. Retail sales in Italy fell 0.3% while consumer confidence dropped back to 97.5 from 98.5. It was a similar story in the US, where consumer confidence fell to 78.1 from 80 expected. On the positive side, Case Shiller home price index was slightly higher than expected with a gain of 13.4% on the year but the Redbook index fell 1.3% mom.

– In the end, US stocks were off a little with the Dow down 0.17%, the Nasdaq down 0.12% and the S&P 500 down 3 points or 0.14%. The S&P is trying to break up and through the recent highs and traders seem a little cautious at the moment.

– In Europe, a day after multi-year highs the FTSE fell 0.51% on the back of some concerns over the miners with what is going on in China. On the Continent, Spanish stocks rose 0.49% but the rest of the region was largely unchanged with the DAX, CAC and FTSEMIB down 0.10%, 0.09% and 0.02% respectively.

– Locally, the ASX SPI 200 March contract fell 6 points in overnight trade.

– On global FX markets, the Chinese yuan had a decent weakening yesterday and the PBOC has widened the band to help it lose more ground against the US dollar. This is helping constrain the Aussie which has slipped back to 0.9013 this morning from a high around 0.9050 yesterday. 90 cents is the key level on the day and a break might see a run lower. Equally a break of 50 would see a run toward 80 which is the top of the recent box.

– Elsewhere, sterling was interesting and it had a volatile night and has slipped back to 1.6675ish, which seems the pivot point of the recent trading range. USDJPY is off a little as well at 102.77 and euro was flattish for the fourth day in a row sitting at 1.3740.

– On commodity markets, Gold has closed at its best level since October last year and above the recent highs, resting at 1340.68 this morning. Nymex crude was down about 0.8% to $102.00 bbl and stockpiles tonight might be interesting. Copper is at $3.31 while the Ags were mixed again with Corn and Soybeans up more than 0.8%, but Wheat fell 0.45%.

On the data front, in Australia today we have construction work done and then Gfk consumer confidence in Germany. UK GDP which will be huge for sterling shorts like myself. In the US, new home sales will be of interest.

And here’s Ric Spooner at CMC Markets with his stock to watch on the ASX today:

Cabcharge’s share price had been in the doldrums as investors reacted to the Victorian government’s decision to place a limit on taxi service fees and contemplated the chill winds of competition from booking apps like Uber and goCatch. However, going into yesterday’s profit announcement, the stock rallied sharply to rest at a trifecta of chart resistance. This consisted of the 200 day moving average; horizontal resistance across the peaks since October and a long term trend line dating right back to May 2012.

Yesterday’s announcement that net profit after tax had increased 8% and included a 7% increase in taxi service revenue suggested that pessimism may have been overdone, at least in the short term. In charting terms, the result produced a “breakaway gap” as the stock opened well clear of resistance. This sort of gap is often seen as a sign of further moves to come. The Cabcharge chart below shows a couple of good examples of moves in the opposite direction with a breakaway gap below the 200 day moving average leading to further declines.

Have a great day and good hunting.

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