Here's your 20-second guide to what Aussie traders will be talking about this morning


It’s Friday.

– The Greeks have either blinked or played a brilliant tactical move overnight by requesting an extension of the current bailout deal for six months. The Germans rejected it and we wait again to see where the situation will end up. Clearly European stocks aren’t fazed and the euro is only off 60 points. So traders are telling us this is all posturing before a deal is done – eventually on Friday. Watch the euro though – that will be the best bellwether of where sentiment is headed.

– The markets, bonds, currency, stock, and gold’s reaction to the Greek situation is remarkable. 2015 started off as a volatile year but the lack of price movement reflecting any fear that a deal will not be done is a departure from what we saw back in 2010 and what might have been expected given the start we had to this year. Yet gold is at $1,205, the euro is in the mid 1.13’s and the DAX is above 11,000. Sure Greek stocks have been all over the place but the price action is remarkable. That’s what money drops can do – so in that sense Mario Draghi should be installed as the President of Europe. He really has made space for messes like these to be sorted. Of course if it’s not… well, that might be another story.

– Elsewhere overnight, it worth noting that S&P gave an interview to the WSJ yesterday about the Australian Sovereign rating. The message is that the AAA is not under threat until the sovereign debt level moves closer to 30% of GDP. That’s good news but it also gives traders something to focus on, particularly with the Budget just a few months away now.

– On the data front, the Philly Fed dipped to 5.2 from 9.3 expected and jobless claims printed 283,000 which is a solid result. French CPI showed prices fell 1.1% in January and crude inventories showed another massive build of 7.7 million barrels. That’s taken the total inventory to 425.6 million barrels.

– At the close, the scoreboard in the US reads:

  • Dow Jones down 0.24%, 44 points to 17,986
  • Nasdaq up 0.38%, 19 points to 4,925
  • S&P down 0.13% to 2,097

European markets at the close:

  • London(FTSE 100) down 0.13% to 6,889
  • Frankfurt (DAX) up 0.37%, to 41 points to 11,002
  • Paris (CAC) up 0.71%, 34 points to 4,833
  • Milan (FTSEMIB) up 0.6%, 13 points to 21,790
  • Madrid (IBEX) up 0.97%, 105 points to 10,901

– Locally, after a slight dip yesterday, SPI 200 traders took the March contract up 9 points to 5,877.

– In Asia yesterday, the Nikkei rose to a 15-year high. That is an amazing statistic and another testament to QE and free money. Until recently the high was the June/July prices for the Nikkei just before the GFC started to emerge. But with this week’s move, the GFC and a weak economy have been washed away. It’s an amazing world we live in.

– On currency markets, the US dollar had a better night and the euro (1.1363) is at risk of breaking down while sterling has retraced quite a bit of the previous day’s rally and sits at 1.5409 this morning. The Aussie sits at 0.7789 and USDJPY is at 118.97.

– On commodity markets, the reversal in coal – across the whole curve – continued again overnight. The March contract fell another 85 cents to $67.25. Iron ore was lower as well with March swaps finishing at $67.25. Elsewhere, crude was under pressure from the big inventory build and sits at $51.84 while copper is at $2.61 and gold is at $1,207.

– Nothing on the data front in Australia today. But, offshore we get the flash PMIs out tonight in Europe and the US. Retail sales in the UK are worth watching and of course, the Eurogroup meeting continues.

And now from CMC Markets’ Ric Spooner is today’s Stock of the Day

Origin Energy

There were no major surprises in Origin’s results yesterday but its share price backed off a chart resistance level.

Yesterday produced a large red chart candle that peaked right at a key Fibonacci level. This consists of a 78.6% retracement of the last swing lower and a projection that CD will equal 1.618 times the AB swing shown on the chart below. The large red body on yesterday’s candle signifies a close well below the open in a sign of potential weakness.

If the high at this Fibonacci level is confirmed as a trend peak by a move under yesterday’s low, it will point to the potential for the downtrend in this stock to resume.

Ric Spooner, chief market analyst, CMC Markets

You can follow Ric on Twitter @ricspooner_CMC

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