But before you get too excited, here’s your morning market update, which is also exciting:
– So stocks are higher this morning even though the data over the past 24 hours has been, with probably only one exception, negative. We kicked off with the miss on the HSBC manufacturing PMI which dropped to 48.3 prior to weaker-than-expected flash PMI’s in France (48.5), Germany (54.7) and EU (53). Also worth noting and placing further pressure on the ECB to do something with regard to quantitative easing was the acceleration in the fall in German PPI to -1.1% yoy from -0.8% as Jan fell 0.1% against the market expectation of a rise in producer prices of 0.2%.
– In the US, the CPI printed 0.1% for a 1.6% yoy result with jobless claims roughly as expected at 336,000. The Philly Fed index tanked to -6 from 8.3 expected and down from 9.4 last. But there was one bright spot – the US flash Markit manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.7 from 53.7 last and 53 expected.
– Traders today will be asking themselves for an explanation then on how with the above data, US stocks are up so strongly. The Dow, with just 15 minutes left to trade, is more than 100 points higher, the Nasdaq is up 0.73% and the S&P 500 0.72% is higher for a gain of 13 points to 1841. Sometimes there is just no explanation – perhaps traders reckon it’s really just the weather that is distorting US data. Our colleague Steve Perlberg from BI US has a great Goldman Sachs chart that suggests it might be more than that – you can see it here
– In Europe, traders were buoyed by the move higher in US stocks and the FTSE rose 0.24%, the CAC was 0.32% higher while Madrid and milan were fairly quiet, up just 0.08% and 0.07% respectively. In Frankfurt the DAX lost 0.42%.
– Locally on the ASX Futures overnight, the March SPI 200 contract rallied another 44 points to 5424 a rise of 430 points from the low a couple of weeks back – that is phenomenal.
– On global FX markets, the risk-on meme has helped the Aussie shrug off yesterday’s lows of 0.8933 and it sits back at 0.9010 this morning in what looks like short covering over the past 30 minutes or so. The euro is down a little at 1.3718 with sterling losing a similar amount, down 0.13% to 1.6657. GBP came under pressure again last night as chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne warned that Britain’s recovery was “not yet secured”. Traders aren’t overly concerned for the moment it seems. USDJPY is unchanged on the day at 102.32.
– On commodity markets, Gold has bounced back strongly to $1323 oz from a low around $1311 yesterday. Nymex crude is above $100 still at $103.20, which is a huge tax on the global economy. Copper is unchanged at $3.33 lb while the Ags are mixed with Corn up 0.55%, Wheat down 0.64% and Soybeans up 0.30%.
On the data front, there is nothing of note out in Australia but the ECB and euro traders will be watching the Italian CPI, while in the UK, retail sales are out. In the US, existing home sales are out and then of course we have the G20 Finance and Central Banker meeting in Sydney.