Here's Your 20-Second Guide To What Aussie Traders Will Be Talking About This Morning

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– The Nasdaq is doing its own thing at the moment up 27 points or 0.68% at the close. It’s been a positive day all day for the Nasdaq while the Dow and S&P 500 had a mini dip mid day before recovering to sit at 16,097 up 0.15% and 1,807 up 0.24% respectively.

– Data-wise, the US releases overnight were encouraging on the employment front, with jobless claims dropping 10,000 to 316,000 which is now getting back to pre-GFC type levels. The Chicago PMI was solid also at 63 against the 60 expected but this was still lower than last month’s 65.9, which along with the fact that Durable goods (ex-transport) fell 0.1% versus the 0.5% expected, helped balance out the good jobless claims data in terms of the taper debate.

– In Europe, German GFK consumer sentiment hit a 6-year high at 7.4, Silvio Berlusconi was thrown out of the Italian Parliament and French and Spanish data disappointed, unsurprisingly, with confidence down to 84 in France and retail sales in Spain down 0.5%..

– Stocks were higher as a result of the wash-up and while most bourses closed off their highs, it was a very solid run higher on the day. The Dax rose 0.66%, the CAC up 0.36%, Stocks in Milan rose 0.80%, stocks in Spain were 0.96% higher (who said economic data mattered?) while in London the FTSE rose 0.19%.

– On the ASX overnight, SPI 200 futures at 8am AEDT is up 11 points at 5,359 bid. The Aussie stock market is still underperforming and under pressure at the moment. On the bond boards, the 3-year and 10-year bonds are down 1 and 2 points respectively. In the US 10’s are up 3 points to 2.74%, Bunds rose 3 to 1.74% and gilts were off 4 points to 2.61%.

– On currency markets, the Aussie dollar remains out of favour and is again the worst performer against the US dollar at 0.9062 this morning. The Aussie ignored some decent construction data yesterday and so remains vulnerable if the Capex to be released today is weak. How low will it go?

– Elsewhere on FX markets, euro is back off a 1.3612 high at 1.3567 this morning, largely unchanged on the day before. The strength came on the back of the German government deal announced in our timezone yesterday. Sterling was on a tear to 1.6330 after there was no revision to the 0.8% GDP print for Q3 GDP but it too has backed off a little and is at 1.6270 this morning. USDJPY recovered its poise after a test of the breakout level yesterday and is atop 102 this morning at 102.15 – 104 remains the target.

– Bitcoin traded up and through $1000 last night, which is no surprise really as it continues to follow a familiar chart pattern plain to anybody watching. Indeed last Friday we noted “Our friends mining and trading Bitcoin have driven the price up to $771 and if you look at a chart of the successive rises and crashes over the past few months there is every chance it’s at $1000 next week.” Bitcoin traded a high of $1073 last night before collapsing to around $925 and it is back at $1050 at 8am AEDT.

– On other commodity markets Nymex crude is closing in on a huge level at $91.30/40 Bbl which, if it breaks, will suggest an $85 price according to the technical analysts I speak to. It is down 1.68% at $92.11. Gold remains roughly unchanged at $1,239 oz, Silver down 0.8% to $19.69 oz, Copper is down 1 cent $3.21 lb. Corn fell 0.3%, Wheat was 0.73% higher and Soybeans fell 0.88%.

Data today sees retail trade in Japan, business confidence in New Zealand, HIA new home sales in Australia along with the very important Capex data before a raft of data out in Europe including Spanish GDP, German unemployment, EU confidence and business climate.

It’s Thanksgiving in the US.

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