Your morning market update before a huge week ahead.
– Some small losses for the Dow and S&P on Friday night in what was fairly quiet post holiday trade. At the close, the Dow was resting at 16,086 down 0.07% with the S&P 500 falling a similar amount to close the week off 1,806. The Nasdaq was up 0.15% and closed the week at 4,060, its highest level in 13 years. The market closed early at 1pm New York time but it is worth noting that all three market closes were weak relative to most of the day’s trade.
– In Europe it was a similar story of relative weakness into the close, with the FTSE ending down 0.05%, the Dax rising 0.19% and the CAC falling 0.17%. Stocks in Milan and Madrid fell 0.41% and 0.21% respectively.
– On the ASX, the SPI 200 December contract closed Saturday morning down 9 points at 5,319 bid. I’m short that and have been for around 80 points and am targeting a move below 5100. On the bond boards, Dec 3-years were down 2 points to 96.90 while the 10’s were 3 points lower at 95.805.
– In Currency markets, the Aussie dollar recovered off its lows last week around the 90.60/70 region and rallied back up above 0.9130 on Friday night before a close around 0.9109 Saturday. This morning it is up a little at 0.9120, probably after the decent result in the Chinese Manufacturing PMI which came in at 51.4 against expectations of 51.1 – that’s an 18-month high still and supportive of the Aussie dollar.
– Elsewhere, even though it wasn’t a terrible week for the US dollar because of its strength against 2 of the big 4 traded pairs (Yen and Aussie), the strength of euro and GBP is writ large and likely catching a few unawares. Sterling sits at 1.6358 and euro an amazing 1.3585.
– On Commodity markets, Bitcoin crashed for a brief dose of reality in parity with gold briefly on Friday New York time. That might have woken a few up to the ridiculousness of the recent run higher in real terms. It’s been down below $850 and is now back up near $1000 in the last half hour.
– On traditional commodity markets, Gold looks like it might be finding some support and is up slightly at $1251 oz. Copper has recovered again from a foray with a break lower and sits at $3.23 lb and Nymex crude is still in danger of a big break lower. It closed the week at $92.78 and $91.30 is key downside support.
On the data front, it is the start to a monster week. I’d recommend having a look at the new Trader Diary post for a full look at a packed week.
Today we have the AiG performance of manufacturing index in Australia along with company profits and building permits, but the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI is probably the bigger data release for the day in a macro sense. Tonight we get a raft of European Markit PMI’s and then Markit PMI in the US and the big brother of all PMI data, the ISM, is released in the US as well.