Later this morning the ABS will release its March quarter GDP report with annualised growth tipped to slow sharply despite expectations for a robust quarterly result.
Here’s the state of play.
- Markets expect a quarterly expansion of 0.7% with annualised growth expected to decline to 2.1%.
- If this eventuates it will mark the fastest quarterly growth rate since Q1 2014 but, on the flip side, the slowest annual rate since Q3 2013.
- Of the direct data inputs received prior to the GDP release most have exceeded market expectations. Inventory and trade figures released earlier this week will add more to growth than what was initially believed while the current account, albeit still a negative for GDP, will detract less than what was first imagined.
- This has seen expectations for quarterly growth revised higher in recent days.
- While large proportion of the GDP inputs are now know, the largest individual component, household final consumption expenditures, won’t be known until the GDP report is released.
- While around 30% of this figure is derived from quarterly retail turnover, something that increased 0.7%, the remaining amount from services is the great unknown heading into the GDP release.
Business Insider will have full coverage of the GDP report once it drops at 11.30am AEST.