But this doesn’t just reflect conventional wisdom. No, this is Washington DC insiders speaking here.
We reached out to InTrade CEO John Delaney, who confirmed that a lot of the trade volume on this particular contract is coming out of DC.
Specifically he said:
…it is a reasonably active market but atypically a lot of the trade is coming from the DC area when normally we might see trade coming from all the major urban areas.
Think of this as political insider trading.
When the insiders are talking, you should listen.
Update: We discuss the possibility that this is manipulation, here.
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