Here's Why New Home Sales Actually Missed Expectations

New residential home sales for June came in at seasonablly-adjusted 330,000 according to the Census Bureau, compared to consensus expectations for 310,000.

Still, May’s previously reported new home sales were revised down in this June report, to 267,000 from 300,000. Thus, the two-month run rate is actually below the consensus view.

Calculation: 310,000 in June + 300,000 in May expected = 610,000 expected versus 330,000 in June + 267,000 in May actual = 597,000 actual. Thus before the release consensus expected 610,000 for the two month period May-June. After the release, the actual two-month figure is 597,000.


The 330,000 figure in June remains well below second half of 2009 levels near 400,000, and is substantially lower than the 504,000 sales recorded in April.

Thing is, the expiry of tax credits for first-time home buyers in April continues to distort these releases since demand from May and June was likely pulled forward.

Markets appear to be reacting positively to the June figure nonetheless:


See the official new home sales release here.

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