The markets are quiet over Christmas, so I’d like to quickly post something I’ve been meaning to post for well over a year but never had the moment. It’s about when the economic crisis ended.
The answer is Fall 2011.
The stock market, when priced in gold, bottomed in October 2011. This chart is important. Stocks represent a bet on human ingenuity. Gold is a rock. When stocks started outperforming gold again, it represented a belief that the crisis was over.
Homebuilding stocks bottomed for the final time at the same time, and then proceeded to take off.
Here’s the XHB ETF.
Finally, searches for the term “ZeroHedge” the pre-eminent doom blog peaked in November 2011.
So now you know. October/November 2011 is when stocks turned around against gold, interest in doom peaked, and the homebuilders really began to take off.
Let history show that that was the end.
PS: There’s one more interesting chart that corroborates this.
Real hourly earnings growth (as measured by year-over-year wage growth minus year-over-year change in the CPI) also bottomed in October 2011.
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