We can debate in circles about debt and too-big-to-fail, and Greece, and China and all kinds of stuff, but for business right now, there’s no more important story than Obamacare, if only because the news is imminent, and because healthcare is a really, really big deal.
So you have to pay attention until it either dies or passes.
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com has done a great job weighing the odds, and he starts by noting what we pointed out yesterdayt hat punters on InTrade.com not give the legislation a better than 50% chance of passing.
But that’s just one, marginally-liquid market, so there’s more to it than that.
So some factors that make Obamacare look likely include:
- Smooth sailing in the Senate.
- The White House having gone all-in
- The end of substantive disagreements (except abortion!)
Some negative factors include:
- The abortion foes aren’t budging.
- Democrats are still worsening on the national stage, in terms of popularity.
- The bipartisan summit at Blair house was a big meh.
Megan McArdle had a good observation in that she’s never seen people so divided — not in their opinions — but in their beliefs about whether it would pass or not. Some think it’s a done deal. Others think it doesn’t have a chance. Those observing dispationately have no idea. It’s certainly close.
Update: Here’s some more good stuff from POLITICO about the 10 politicians who will decide the future of healthcare.
Don’t miss: Our complete guide to understanding Obamacare >
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