Here's what would probably happen if Greece defaults

Greece has said it will default on a 1.6 billion euro debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund on June 30 unless it receives new funds from its creditors, in a move that could set off a chain of events that might eventually pitch Athens out of the euro zone.

Euro zone leaders will hold an emergency summit on Monday to try to avert such a scenario, as Greek bank withdrawals accelerate and government revenue slumps while Athens and its international creditors remain deadlocked over a debt deal.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde has ruled out offering Greece a grace period on its debt, saying the global lender would consider Athens in default if it does not pay.

That would likely cause turmoil on Greek and euro zone financial markets and might hasten the pace of deposit withdrawals, forcing Athens to impose capital controls to stop money fleeing the country.

However, a senior EU official said a non-payment to the IMF would not automatically trigger a default on euro zone government loans to Greece.

The next big question would be how long the European Central Bank was prepared to continue authorizing emergency lending to Greek banks, which is secured partly on the bonds of a defaulting government.

The ECB’s policy-making governing council has been conferring weekly since February on the ceiling for emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Greek central bank to commercial lenders, which has been raised incrementally to the current 83.7 billion euros.

Greece flag athensReutersA Greek national flag flutters next to a statue of ancient Greek goddess Athena, in Athens May 21, 2015.

The council will hold a special conference call on Friday, the second in three days, to consider adding more emergency liquidity for Greek banks, two people close to the situation said.

The ECB might freeze or lower that ceiling, or increase the so-called “haircut” or discount it applies to collateral presented by Greek banks, both government bonds and private loans, which would presumably be deemed at greater risk.

Greece’s next major repayment hump comes in July and August, when it has to redeem bonds held by the ECB for a total value of 6.8 billion euros.

Even if the central bank continued limited funding for Greek banks after a government default on the IMF, the political pressure to pull the plug if Athens defaulted on the ECB would likely be overwhelming, people familiar with the situation say.

There might be calls by some euro zone creditors to suspend payment of funds from the European Union budget to Greece, although there would also likely be pressure from civil society organisations to provide humanitarian aid as the Greek economy reeled from the impact of a default.

German Angela Merkel Greek Prime Minister Alexis TsiprasREUTERS/Hannibal HanschkeGerman Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras leave after addressing a news conference following talks at the Chancellery in Berlin March 23, 2015.

Credit ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greek government debt and that of four Greek banks to CCC junk level last week, reflecting the likelihood of default within 12 months in the absence of a deal between Athens and its creditors.

S&P also said the government appeared to be prioritising paying pensions and wages over debt service to official lenders.

How much longer the Greek government would be able to go on paying civil servants, pensioners and essential suppliers is not clear. The state budget is close to primary balance before debt service and the government has ordered public authorities to hand over all spare cash to the central bank.

However, tax revenue would be likely to dwindle due to the uncertainty caused by a government default.

Many suppliers say they have not been paid for months, and at some stage, the government might have to pay all or part of its payments in IOUs. This could effectively create a parallel currency if IOUs began to be exchanged for goods or euros at a discount to their face value.

(Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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This article originally appeared at Reuters. Copyright 2015. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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