Here's What Happens If You Don't Sign Up For Obamacare

We’re months away from cutting the ribbon on the new online marketplace for health insurance, but the vast majority of uninsured Americans — the very people the Affordable Care Act is meant to help — still have no idea whether they’ll be in the shopping mood or not. 

According to a recent survey, nearly two-thirds of uninsured Americans say they haven’t decided whether or not they’ll buy health insurance by the Jan. 1, 2014 deadline (even though they’ll have to pay a penalty if they don’t).

Another 10% say they flat out won’t buy in at all.

We understand the hesitation. Change is hard enough when it’s simple to understand, let alone when it has to do with things like insurance, health care policy, and your own financial and personal well-being. 

“People just don’t understand how this is going to affect their wallet, what prices are going to be and what this could really cost them,” said Laura Adams, senior insurance analyst. 

Here’s what you need to know:

What is this new health care exchange all about? 
The health care exchange (aka The Marketplace) is the centrepiece of the Affordable Care Act, an online marketplace where consumers can shop around for health care plans, just like auto insurance. All 50 states will have their own marketplaces, some of which will be run by the federal government and some of which will be run by individual states.

Delays notwithstanding, the marketplace opens on Oct. 1, 2013 and people will have until Jan 1, 2014 to pick up a policy if they want to escape penalties.  There, you’ll be able to choose from four different varieties of plans, platinum (highest benefits), gold, silver, and bronze (lowest benefits).

Does everyone need to sign up for a health plan? 

The health care exchange is open for every U.S. resident, but only the uninsured will face penalties for skipping out. If you are enrolled in your employer’s health plan or pay for your own plan already, you can keep on keepin’ on, although we’d at least recommend shopping around to see if there are more affordable plans out there. 

What if you don’t think you can afford it?
Obviously, if everyone could afford to enroll in health care, chances are we wouldn’t have an Obamacare plan to deal with at all. As it stands, 61% of the uninsured respondents surveyed by InsuranceQuotes cited money issues as the main reason they haven’t purchased health insurance. 

To help, the government has put in place tax credits that are specifically designed to help low-income households cover the cost of a health care plan. 

To qualify, individuals or families can earn household incomes up to 400% of the federal poverty level ($94,200 for a family of four in 2013). You can claim the tax credit in advance, rather than paying upfront for your health care plan and then waiting for a refund after tax season, Adams notes. 

Generally, the government will apply those credits directly to your health insurer, which will reduce your premium cost.

To find out how big a tax credit you can expect, use Kaiser Permanente’s calculator.

What if you just don’t want to enroll?
To make the reform easier to swallow, lawmakers have thrown consumers a couple of bones: For starters, the Jan. 1, 2014 deadline for enrollment is a soft one. You can start signing up when the exchange opens on Oct. 1 and you have until March 31 to enroll.  

That gives people a three-month cushion to get their ducks a row. And on April 1, when the penalties begin, they start small and rise on a tiered scale up until 2016: 


Families — $285 or 1% of total household income, whichever is greater.
Individual adults — $95 or 1% of total household income. 


Families — $975 or 2% of income, whichever is greater. 
Individual adults — $325 or 1% of income.


Families — $2,085 or 2.5% of income, whichever is greater. 
Individual adults — $695 or 2.5% of income. 

“It’s designed to be this kind of gentle nudge that becomes not so gentle in a couple years,” Adams says.

Some analysts predict young people will look at the first year penalties and shrug. If you’re under 26, you can always sign up for your parents’ health care plan. And paying a $95 fee may not seem all that tough a burden  when you compare it to the potential higher cost of a year-round health care plan. 

It’s not the end of the world if that happens, but it could mean some trouble for Obamacare. A lot of the new plan’s success rides on whether it can attract consumers who are both young and healthy along with the older, unhealthy sect in order to keep costs affordable for everyone. If young, healthy, uninsured people decide they’d rather pay a fee than shell out hundreds of dollars per year for a health policy they doubt they’ll use, leaving mostly unhealthy, older people enrolled, it could throw things out of balance and make policies more expensive. 

But given the results of this Kaiser Permanente poll, in which nearly 77% of 18- to 25-year-olds said health care is very important, those worries may be overblown.

The bottom line: It’s up to you whether or not you can afford to skip out on health care. For now, kick back and wait until the exchange opens in October until you start to worry. You can do some searching and see what rates are really out there before making your decision. Any speculation on costs before then is basically white noise as far as we’re concerned. 

What about Medicaid? 
Families and individuals who earn less than 138% of the federal poverty level will still have access to Medicaid.

At best, Medicare coverage in states will be expanded under Obamacare. At worst, states will exercise their right to skip an expansion in favour of the status quo. So far, about 13 states have opted out of an expansion. This map shows where each states stands as of June 14.

How much can I expect my health care costs to rise? 
We wish there were an easy way to answer this question. Because each state is in the process of submitting estimates from insurer, we can only guess at premium costs as numbers trickle in. The Wall Street Journal analysed estimates from eight states and pretty much confirmed what experts had predicted — that the new health care plans will be more expensive for the young and the healthy.

“Healthy consumers could see insurance rates double or even triple when they look for individual coverage under the federal health law later this year, while the premiums paid by sicker people are set to become more affordable,” the WSJ’s Louise Radnofsky reports.

Even so, there’s still a chance rates could decrease over time if insurance regulators decide to lower them in order to compete in the marketplace. And if that happens, then, well, Obamacare is officially doing its job. We’ve already seen that happen in Oregon, and as Politico’s Jason Milliman points out, since all rates have yet to go through the state review process, anything could happen.

“The prices that many people can expect to pay, though, may remain a mystery for a few more months,” he writes. “The feds, who are reviewing rates for exchange plans in more than half the states, have released limited information so far about who’s even asked to sell on federal-run insurance marketplaces, let alone what they’d like to charge.”

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