Here's What Alcoa Earnings Tell Us About The State Of The Global Economy


Markets are rallying after-hours, and it likely has to do with strong earnings from Alcoa.

Mike O’Rourke of BTIG has a further breakdown of what the company said about the landscape. Here goes:

Alcoa increased its demand growth forecast from 10% to 12%, ex-China it has risen from 5% to 6%.  The breakdown of growth expectations improvements over the Q1 forecast has seen Brazil go from 6% to 12%, Asia ex-China from 6% to 8%, North America from 5% to 6%, Europe from 3% to 4%and China from 18% to 21%.  In its assessment of its 6 key end markets, the outlook for Aerospace and the Industrial Gas Turbine space remained the same as Q1.  The other 4 areas all showed improvement.  The Q1 forecast for 2%-7% sales growth for the Automotive segment was increased to 3%-8%.  For Heavy Trucks and Trailers, the new sales growth range is 12%-17% up from Q1’s 5%-10%.  Beverage cans went for from flat in Q1 to 2%-3% growth.  The Q1 forecasted 2%-4% contraction for Commercial Building and Construction was increased to a 1.5%-2.5% contraction.  The most interesting comment during the call may have been the companies response to a question about the biggest risk in the second half of the year.  “The biggest risk that we continue to have is not coming from the what is called real economy it is more coming from the volatility in the Financial markets.” Alcoa specifically noted the currency swings can potentially have a big impact on the company. 

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