With the market selling off, conversations about the economy have turned gloomy (that’s how it works, the market feeds the perception of the economy, not the other way around).
But Joachim Fels of Morgan Stanley has three pieces of good news for you:
Also true, the continuing sell-off in equities and other risky assets risks feeding back negatively into economic sentiment and could induce companies and consumers to postpone spending. However, as I already pointed out last week, there is also some good news in some of the recent market moves. First, lower oil prices bolster households’ real incomes, which is particularly welcome as nominal wage growth in the US and elsewhere has been broadly flat so far. Second, lower risk-free bond yields in the advanced economies benefit those EM economies that are dependent on external financing and buy time for them to continue to rebalance and reduce external vulnerabilities. Third but not least, the trend towards a stronger dollar versus the euro and yen is exactly what the doctor ordered for the ailing European and Japanese economies.
Fels also notes that in recent days, expectations for the first Fed rate hike have been pushed back.
So while markets have tumbled, already there are some positives.