Courtesy of the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) currency strategy team, here are the bank’s latest currency views “in a tweet”.
Borrowing from Twitter’s micro messaging service of 140 characters or less, it’s a great little synopsis of the bank’s current thinking on major currency pairs over both the short and longer term.
Near-term the NAB doesn’t see much movement against the US dollar except against the Japanese yen, noting that “Trump travails and policy inertia are still in the driving seat”.
Longer-term, the bank says the US dollar is likely to strengthen against the Australian and New Zealand dollars, along with the Japanese yen. Offsetting those gains, it says the buck will likely weaken against the euro and the Chinese yuan, keeping the broader US dollar index steady over the next six to 12 months.
“While the Trump discount factor looks likely to continue weighing, we maintain faith in the incoming US calendar challenging currently low market expectations for the Fed and supporting the US dollar,” it says.