The Australian Bureau of Statistics has just delivered a massive shot in the arm to Q3 GDP growth to be released tomorrow.
As part of its balance of payments and international investment position release, the ABS also releases its calculation of what the net addition or subtraction to growth in the quarter will be once it adds up all our exports and then subtracts all out exports.
This quarter, that sum is adding 1.5% to growth.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the bureau noted that “the surplus on goods and services increased $6,109m from $2,178m in the June quarter 2015 to $8,287m in the September quarter 2015. This is expected to contribute 1.5 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2015 volume measure of GDP.“
Driving that is the decrease in the current account deficit which fell 12% or $2.402 billion in seasonally adjusted terms to $18.104 billion during the third quarter. The deficit on the balance of goods and services fell a massive 32% to $7.438 billion while the primary income deficit increased $1,106m (12%) to $10,054m.
The contribution of 1.5% to growth (versus the 0.6% subtraction last quarter) is at the upper end of the market range of +0.6% to +1.5%.
Already yesterday, the NAB and Westpac were suggesting that the risk to growth was to the topside so its possible that such a strong contribution to growth will see further upward revisions.