Inside Canberra is a weekly newsletter and the longest continuously running political publication in Australia, launched in 1947.
Its late former editor, Rob Chalmers, spent nearly 45 years running the publication until just a fortnight before his death in 2011, and the baton has now passed to John McDonnell, who’s just made his prediction on how tomorrow’s vote will pan out.
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull is that he believes the Coalition will return, with just enough votes for a joint sitting to get its legislation through.
But McDonnell thinks the Senate, which Turnbull was hoping to clear out and clean up, will be even tougher for the government, with up to 19 senators on the crossbench, including nine Greens and three from South Australian independent Nick Xenophon’s team, alongside broadcaster Derryn Hinch, Tasmania’s Jacqui Lambie and the return of Queensland firebrand Pauline Hanson.
Here’s McDonnell’s call, which he posted on Facebook. We’ll know how right he is in about 28 hours from now.
Here at Inside Canberra we reckon that the likely outcome is that the Coalition will have 83 seats in the Reps and it will probably end up with 33 Senators which will mean 116 votes at a joint sitting when it will need 114
We think that Labor will end up with 24 Senators, the Greens will have nine, the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) three, Liberal Democrats two (mainly by appealing to disaffected former Coalition voters) plus Bob Day from Family First, Derryn Hinch, Pauline Hanson, Jacqui Lambie and Kado Muir from the unaligned WA Nationals.
All of this means that the Coalition government has a reasonable chance of getting its important legislation through the Parliament as it may be able to garner support from six of the ten crossbenchers.
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