NSW votes today and incumbent Premier Mike Baird’s Coalition is the unbackable favourite to win the state election, with bookies paying $1.01 for a win while Labor, led by Luke Foley is paying $17.
The key policy difference between the parties is in the infrastructure area, with the Coalition proposing to lease 49% of state-owned electricity distribution infrastructure, the “poles and wires”, which would raise some $20 billion for investment in roads and rail. Labor opposes this, being reluctant to increase debt.
From the ANZ economics research team, here’s a chart that breaks down the infrastructure investment pipeline under different scenarios. It’s followed by a handy summary of the projects that will be on voters’ minds as they head to the polls tomorrow, thinking about the disruption and potential property market effects – positive and negative – that will result from the projects.
From the report:
The NSW Government has proposed a large pipeline of public infrastructure projects in recent years, particularly roads, highways, bridges and rail. Of critical importance is the impact that the upcoming election will have on the Government’s infrastructure plans.
The current pipeline of projects under construction and committed to in the Budget will go ahead under a Labor government. But Labor will not commit to stage 3 of WestConnex, a tunnel designed to link the planned M5 East tunnel at St Peters to the future M4 East tunnel near Rozelle. Moreover, the building of a second harbour rail crossing would not begin until 2022 under Labor (it is slated for construction as early as 2017 under LNP). The Coalition has tied AUD11.3bn to urban roads and urban public transport, AUD4.1bn for regional transport, and AUD3.5bn for social infrastructure projects to the proposed asset sales.
Labor has committed around AUD10bn less than the Liberal National Coalition to infrastructure as it is opposed to the ‘poles & wires’ privatisation and has a reluctance to increase debt.
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