Tomasz Tonguz is a San Francisco-based investor at Redpoint Ventures who has built a strong following for his analysis and commentary on software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies and investment opportunities.
On his blog this week he has sifted through the Atlassian IPO filing and compares how the Australian tech company, which will soon start trading on the Nasdaq, compares against other comparable companies on measures like sales efficiency, R&D spent, and gross operating margin. He rates it.
At the end, he looks at valuation. Here’s Tonguz with a super-quick review of what the company might be worth:
What will Atlassian be worth in the public markets? If we project the company to grow at 45% in 2016, a similar growth rate to 2015, then revenues will total about $460M. Atlassian should command a premium multiple. 7.7x forward revenues is the top quartile median implying a $3.6B market cap. Workday and ServiceNow trade at 10.5x. And Xero trades at 11.5x, which is the best forward multiple as of Friday, which would imply a valuation of $5.3B.
Founders Mike Cannon-Brookes and Scott Farquhar each own 37.7% of the company going into the listing.
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