From Arab Bank’s Treasury Dealer David Scutt, here’s a quick guide to what Australian traders will be thinking about as the day gets underway.
The ASX 200 looks set to follow Wall St into the red with SPI futures pointing to a fall of 19pts on the open. With crude, gold, silver and most base metals finishing lower overnight, coupled with renewed concerns over the prospect of Fed tapering, if the index is to somehow buck the global trend, the catalyst will likely have to come from the movements in Chinese equities.
A largely uneventful session for the AUDUSD overnight as less-dovish rhetoric from both the RBA and Fed ensured a session of gentle range trading. While there is some event risk with Debelle speaking this morning, we wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same today as traders await fresh clues on the strength of both the Australian and US labour markets tomorrow. Support is found at .8950 with resistance kicking in at .9000, .9018 and again at .9040.
Domestic data releases today include housing finance numbers for June along with the AIG Performance of construction index for July. Following their decision to cut interest rates yesterday, Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor of the RBA, will also speak from 11.30am. On the regional front, New Zealand Q2 unemployment data will be released at 8.45am while Taiwanese trade data for July, a good lead indicator for the Chinese numbers when not augmented by abnormal trade flows to Hong Kong, will be released at 6pm this evening.
Data releases this evening include consumer credit and MBA mortgage market index from the US, Ivey PMI and building approvals in Canada, consumer confidence and CPI from Switzerland, German industrial output along with French trade for June. On the policy front, the BoE release their quarterly inflation report with the wording doubly-important on this occasion given the inclusion of a specific forward guidance.