From David Scutt, Treasury Dealer at Arab Bank, here’s a quick run-through of what the Australian market will be yakking about this morning, including some big results from Rio and Telstra.
Have a great day.
Telstra and Rio Tinto both release earnings today.
The ASX 200 look set to fall this morning, at least according to SPI futures, with the September contract currently pointing to a decline of 9pts on the open. While this is merely reflective of moves offshore, having fallen heavily yesterday and with small upticks in base and precious metals recorded overnight, a small bounce looks on the cards today in the absence of shockingly-bad unemployment data or a big miss from either Rio Tinto or Telstra.
Having plumbed a low of .892 earlier in the session, the AUDUSD has rocketed higher in late North American trade with the pair hitting a high of .9024 before sliding into the close. While the overriding factor guiding the pair remains Fed tapering, Chinese trade data, along with domestic unemployment data released beforehand, looks set to dictate its short-term movements today. Support is found at .8970, .8950 and at .892 with resistance kicking in at .9000, .9024 and again at .9080.
Australian labour force statistics for July will be released at 11.30am. Despite an expected fall in participation to 65.2%, economists are looking for unemployment to increase to 5.8% on the back of subpar job creation (+5k). While that is the median consensus forecast, given the survey has been relatively well behaved of late, it does suggest we’re due for an ‘outlier’ given past volatility in the release.
Chinese trade data for July will be released today around 12 midday. Economists are looking for exports and imports to rise 3.0% and 2.1% on year with the trade surplus holding steady at $27.2b. Elsewhere in the region we’ll also get monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and Bank of Korea along with Japanese lending and current account figures for June.
Data releases this evening include US initial jobless claims, Canadian new house prices, German trade, Spanish industrial output along with unemployment figures from both Greece and Switzerland.
David Scutt is on Twitter.