From Greg McKenna at GlobalFX and Lighthouse Securities, here’s a quick guide to what’s on the minds of Australian traders heading into the day.
– It was a night of concerns about the Fed, growth and Septaper it seems – drawing a line through a number of markets suggests it was a bit of a “risk off” night.
– On the Global FX scene the Aussie Dollar is the worst performer at 0.9205 this morning (-0.6%) and looking a bit wobbly on the hourly and 4 hour charts. The Euro rejected 1.33 again overnight (1.3295 high) and sits down a smidge at 1.3263, GBP is essentially unchanged (1.5338) but it is the Yen which is suggestive that this is a bit of a safety move as it sits at 97.94 when it should probably be higher based on techs and retail sales yesterday.
– Stocks were on the back foot again last night in the US as the market gets a little wary of the threat of Septaper later this week and pending home sales pulled back less than forecast (-0.4% v -1% expected) suggesting perhaps the Taper is coming. At the close the Dow (-0.24% @15,522), the Nasdaq (-0.39% @3,599) and the S&P 500 (-0.39% @1,685) were all lower. European stocks, with exception of Milan (-0.89%) performed better though with the FTSE (+0.08%), DAX (+0.17%) and CAC (+0.00%) either flat or eking out small gains even though some big M&A activity might have otherwise helped – on another day.
– In other data retail trade in Japan yesterday for Jun was a little disappointing coming in at -0.2%, but Italian business confidence improved (91.7 v 90.8 expected) and the Dallas Fed unexpectedly fell (4.4 v 7.3 expected and 6.5 last).
On Commodity markets gold is at $1324 oz. (-0.55%) Nymex Crude is $104.51 (-0.18%), Corn fell another 0.56% but Soybeans bucked the recent weakness printing higher (1.32%) for what seems like the first time in ages.
On the data front today we have New Zealand Building Permits and then South Korean Current Account balance and Industrial and Service sector output. I’ll be watching both these numbers very closely. Then in Japan its IP as well as unemployment and household spending before Building permits in Australia. In Europe we see Spanish GDP, Portuguese Business Confidence, EU Consumer confidence, Business Climate, Economic and Service Sentiment before German price data. In the US it’s the Redbook, Case Shiller House prices and Consumer Confidence.
Of particular note to the Australian dollar and Australian interest rate traders will be RBA Governor Glenn Stevens annual speech to the Anika foundation. It is always one of his best speeches of the year when you look back on them, normally important structurally so I’m looking forward to it.
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