Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Some great games this week! Let’s look at a couple that have national interest with some suspect lines to exploit! Auburn @ LSU
LSU has been feasting on the fresh meat of new quarterbacks. First it was Jacoby Brissett at Florida…8 of 14 passing for 94 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions in a 41-11 win. Then it was Matt Simms for Tennessee…LSU allowed Simms to go 6 of 20 for 128 yards and two interceptions in a 38-7 victory. Yikes!
Now it is Clint Moseley’s turn. He goes up against the vaunted LSU defence that is ranked fourth nationally in total defence. However, due to some ‘drug policy violations’, LSU’s star cornerback Tyrann Mathieu is out for this game. He is a serious disrupter on the defence (four forced fumbles, two interceptions, 42 tackles and 1 1/2 sacks). Also absent will be starting running back Spencer Ware and defensive back Therold Simon.
Honestly, we think that the 21.5 number is already aggressive, even without these absences. Auburn has a knack for staying in games and has a decent run game to support a passing game that actually might even be an improvement with the change.
SkullDog Show Pick:
USC @ Notre Dame
Wait…what? Is this line actually correct? Do I need to go to the doctor for an eye exam? Both teams have played inferior competition with general success. No surprise. Notre has a quality win against Michigan State, but we think that they are a little over-rated. But, we think that the statistical #s are a good comparison for these two teams. How does that look? USC generates about 4.5 yards a carry and 8 yards per pass. Meanwhile, Notre Dame allows 4 yards per rush and 6.6 per pass. Conversely, Notre dame generates 6.2 yards a carry (vs 4 yards allowed by USC) and gets 7 yards per pass (vs 7 yards allowed by USC). If anything, these stats favour USC.
USC has a solid, experienced quarterback in Matt Barkley, with several weapons at his disposal, including Robert Woods (arguably one of the best QB > WR tandems in the country). Notre Dame on the other hand has the capacity for a high powered offence, but lacks experience and is turn-over prone.
This game is going to be a close one, likely ending in dramatic fashion. 9.5 points is way too much. Sure, there are some injury issues on the CB side and the starting RB Marc Tyler is out, but the drop-off of talent is not large enough to warrant concern. SkullDog Show is going to take USC plus the points AND take a smaller bet on the money-line in case they end up with the win.
SkullDog Show Pick:
For more picks this weekend check out www.skulldogshow.com
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