As a result, analysts’ models are now showing lower Q2 GDP.
First up is Barclays’ Cooper Howes, who said the declines in housing were broad based, and that what few gains there have been this year have mostly come from multi-family. As a result, his growth forecast came down 1/10th to 2.9%
“After unusually severe winter weather weighed on housing activity in the first quarter, housing starts have been slow to recover,” he writes.
Macroeconomic Advisers also saw its forecast fall by a tenth, to 3.6%, on the the surge in prices.
“…The components of the CPI that we use to deflate retail sales were, on balance, higher than expected, implying less PCE in the second quarter,” the firm said. “As a result, we lowered our tracking forecast of second-quarter GDP growth by one-tenth to 3.6%.”
And Morgan Stanley also lowered its forecast, to 3.5% from 3.7%.
We recently told you how it now looks as if Q1 contracted as much as 2%, mostly thanks to the harsh winter but perhaps because of other factors as well.
So for 2014 so far, we’re looking at probably no more than something like 1.5% growth.