Here’s some pretty good historical data via Raymond James and Market Montage on the odds of a deeper market decline:
“Some interesting data from Jeff Saut of Raymond James if you are a data hound like I am.
Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%. 90 four of them have been moderate (>10%), 43 have been severe (>15%) and 25 have been bear markets (>20%).
So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:
Normally I’d say it’s unwise to data mine market facts like this and extrapolate out, but 294 data points is pretty broad as far as these kinds of statistics go…..