Here Are The Historical Odds Of A Deeper Pullback...


Here’s some pretty good historical data via Raymond James and Market Montage on the odds of a deeper market decline:

“Some interesting data from Jeff Saut of Raymond James if you are a data hound like I am.

Since 1928 there have been 294 pullbacks of at least 5%.  90 four of them have been moderate (>10%), 43 have been severe (>15%) and 25 have been bear markets (>20%).

So in a statistical sense once you hit the 5% threshold your chances of a 10%, 15%, and 20%+ drop are as follows:

10%: 32.0%

15%:  14.6%

20%+: 8.5%”

Normally I’d say it’s unwise to data mine market facts like this and extrapolate out, but 294 data points is pretty broad as far as these kinds of statistics go…..

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