Here Are The 10 U.S. States Most Likely To Default

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Right now, there is renewed worry about the fiscal position of states in the U.S. Just yesterday, Illinois passed Iceland on the rankings of sovereign CDS compiled by CMA Datavision.

Today we have the top 10 states facing sovereign default, ranked by CPD, or the cumulative probability of default. That default risk (cumulative probability of default) is measured through fluctuations in the state’s CDS rating, and the height of that rating. The spread of each 10-year CDS is also listed.

Note: These are the only U.S. states CMA Datavision tracks CDS for.

First, the sovereign: United States CDS

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 7.2%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 42.4

Source: CMA Datavision

10. Virginia

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 12.3%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 76.5

Source: CMA Datavision

9. Texas

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 15%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 93.5

Source: CMA Datavision

8. Ohio

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 20.9%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 135.8

Source: CMA Datavision

7. Massachusetts

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 22.0%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 143

Source: CMA Datavision

6. Nevada

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 32.0%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 220.1

Source: CMA Datavision

5. Michigan

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 33.8%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 242

Source: CMA Datavision

4. New Jersey

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 34.7%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 245

Source: CMA Datavision

3. New York

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 35.3%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 250

Source: CMA Datavision

2. California

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 39.3%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 285.0

Source: CMA Datavision

1. Illinois

Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD): 41.2%

CDS Mid 10 Year (in bps): 311.8

Source: CMA Datavision

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