“Our best years are ahead,” says Treasurer Joe Hockey in the introduction to the 2015 Intergenerational Report, a major look into Australia’s future.
Here are the key forecasts from the report for the next 40 years:
Population: To be 39.7 million in 2055 from about 23 million now. That’s assuming a 1.3% a year growth.
Life expectancy: 95.1 years for men and 96.6 years for women.
Those aged 100 or more: About 40,000 people. In 1974-75, there were 122 Australian centenarians.
Young people supporting those aged 65 an older: There will be 2.7 people aged between 15 and 64 for every person aged 65 and over. In 1974-75, there were 7.3 and there are 4.5 today.
Aged pensions: In today’s dollars, spending per head of population to increase from almost $2,000 in 2014-15 to around $3,200. Age pensions are about 2.9% of GDP now and could fall to 2.7% if structural changes to indexation and age of eligibility are implemented. If not, age pensions will grow to be 3.6% of GDP.
Superannuation: Assets, now worth about $1.84 trillion, could grow to $9 trillion by 2040.
Those in the work force: Expected to fall to 62.4% from the current 64.6%.
Productivity: Average annual labour productivity growth will be 1.5%, about the same as it is now.
Economic Growth: GDP will be positive, without a recession, to 2055, averaging 2.8% per year. It averaged 3.1% over the past 40 years
Annual average income: Will rise to $117,300 from about $66,400 today.
Health spending: To grow to $6,460 per person in 2055, in today’s dollars, from $2,800 per head now. Overall spending to increase to 5.5% of GDP from 4.2%.
Aged care spending: Federal spending is projected to rise from 0.9% of GDP to 1.7% of GDP in 2054-55 or about $80 billion in today’s dollars.
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