Last week Henry Blodget said regarding the possibility that California may not have reported as many new unemployment claims as they might have if weather conditions had been different:
Jobless claims were better than expected, even after adjusting for a possible unusual anomaly
Just look at the following California weekly initial unemployment claims data from the U.S. Department of labour for year-to-date through last week:
Blodget quoted an estimate that the maximum adjustment possibly to come in California would be 25,000. Even if all of that maximum number arrived this week the number this coming Thursday morning would be 10% less than the number for the middle of July, less than the 4-week moving average in early August and less than the 10-week moving average just two weeks ago.
And the number for last week is quite within ordinary bounds. For the 42 weeks so far this year 30 were farther away from the trend line than was last week’s reading.
The trend line indicates the the weekly initial claims are declining in 2012 at an annual rate of about 28% in California, which comes out to an average of more than 1,500 fewer claims each month.
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