Roubini spoke at some conference somewhere (see this Bloomberg video: Roubini Dismisses ‘Green Shoots,’ Sees ‘Complacency’). He’s still singing the same song he was a month ago:
- Those aren’t “green shoots”–they’re yellow weeds
- The crisis isn’t over, and everyone has become way too complacent
- We’ll be in recession for another 6-9 months
- The recovery after that will be weak
- Big risk of a double-dip
- Households aren’t deleveraging
- Oil could go to $200 just as economy starts to recover
- Real interest rates could spike, killing housing, etc.
- Concern about hyper-inflation
- All this could lead to “perfect storm” that will clip wings of economic and financial recovery
- So we need to stay focused on averting disaster before we redesign regulatory architecture.
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