One of the most interesting charts and observations from Paul Kasriel’s recent presentation on the economy is the following:
Will the [economic] headwinds prevail, pushing the economy back into recession?
Not likely. Over 50 years of history suggests that the economy does not enter a recession unless the Fed pushes it into one.
Paul’s chart shows that Fed tightening has preceeded every recession for the past 50 years, including the one we’re coming out of. And although SOME people are concerned about inflation, our current Fed chairman is nicknamed “Helicopter Ben.”
Paul doesn’t see the economy doing a double-dip unless the Fed tightens. And Paul doesn’t see the Fed tightening until the middle of next year at the earliest.
Read Paul Kasriel’s full presentation on the economy here >