The more the market recovers, the more bearish David Rosenberg gets (which, of course, is how it should be).
Today’s startling prediction, which David made on Bloomberg Radio this morning? Unemployment may go to 13%.
It would be hard to reconcile THAT one with the popular v-shaped recovery theory.
Bloomberg: The U.S. unemployment rate may rise to a post-World War II high of 13 per cent in the aftermath of the recession, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.
“This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” Rosenberg said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “At the beginning of the year, who was calling for unemployment to go up to 10 per cent?”
Rosenberg said the recession, the deepest since the Great Depression, “is truly secular in nature” and said the economy is “in a post-bubble credit collapse.”
A 13 per cent unemployment rate would be the highest since monthly records began in January 1948, according to labour Department data. The previous postwar high was 10.8 per cent in December 1982. Yearly records, which began in 1929, show joblessness climbed to almost 25 per cent in 1933 during the Great Depression.