Deutsche Bank runs the real-estate numbers and concludes that nationwide prices will fall another 17%, for a total peak-to-trough collapse of 40%.
In New York City, meanwhile, where prices started falling later than the rest of the country (and from a higher peak) prices have another 35% to fall. And that’s just to get back to fair value. If prices stop at fair value after a bubble this big, it will be the first time in history in which this happened.
Deutsche Bank’s outlook for New York, by the way, is positively bullish compared to Goldman Sachs’. In January, Goldman estimated that NYC real estate prices could fall as much as 58%.
Here’s DB’s outlook for some of the major cities in the country. The lefthand column shows the amount DB expects prices will still fall. The righthand columns show the fall from the peak.