These charts by Calculated Risk support much of what we’ve been saying about the housing market:
- The fastest growing segment of delinquencies is now prime mortgages
- Delinquencies and foreclosures likely won’t peak until the middle of next year
- Prices likely won’t stop falling until 2011
- The high end of the market will be the next to collapse
The percentage of prime loans going bad is climbing rapidly and nearing 10%:
Even fixed-rate prime loans are going bad:
Sub-prime delinquency growth appears to be levelling off (albeit at 40+%):
Delinquencies are super-high in some states but are very widespread:
Here’s Calculated Risk’s take on this. Click through for the full post and bigger charts.
On the MBA [Mortgage Bankers Association] conference call concerning the “Q2 2009 National Delinquency Survey”, MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said:
The problem is moving to prime loans, and fixed rate prime loans. Although the delinquency rate is lower for prime fixed rate than for other loans, these loans make up 65.5% of all loans – so the increase matters.
Brinkmann expects delinquencies to peak in mid-2010.
Brinkmann expects foreclosures to peak at the end of 2010. …historically house prices do not bottom until after foreclosure activity peaks in a certain area. Since the subprime crisis delinquency rates might be peaking, it would not be surprising if prices are near a bottom in the low end areas. But in general I’d expect further declines in house prices – especially in mid-to-high end areas.
See Also From Calculated Risk:
Existing Home Sales Increase In July
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