Doug Kass is sticking with his call about the generational market low a few weeks ago. But now that everyone else is finally realising that this may just be the start of a huge new bull market, he’s also running for the hills.
(We love Doug’s instincts. We thank goodness we don’t have to worry about getting all these little short-term bulls and bears right, though. And we’d still put at least 50% odds on the fact that we have not yet seen that generational low.)
Too Many Booyahs Now?
I am going to stay true to what brought me here… and suggest that it is now an appropriate time to raise some cash.Within the context of the greatest political circus ever televised, stocks have not improved because of the government; they are improving despite the government. And in the face of an unprecedented five up 90% days in March, the current rally is clearly different this time and more durable than others that preceded it.
Even though market internals have been steadily improving, the Nouriel Roubini Stock Market Bottom is in and a generational low has likely been reached (and will not be breached), so the move now seems stretched as the fear of being out has been replaced the early March fear of being in.
The gloom and doom that permeated the investment scene in early March is now disappearing. My sense is that, not unexpectedly, investor optimism is now on the rise and that sentiment indicators will exhibit that heightened optimism as they are released in the days ahead. This coupled with overbought technical indicators lead me to a more cautious view now.
More Doug Kass here >
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