We had legendary fund manager Ken Fisher on TechTicker this week. Ken thinks the economy’s problem is not too much debt but too little. He also thinks we’re only about halfway through the v-shaped market recovery.
(Where can we get whatever Ken’s having?)
Aaron Task, TechTicker: The market is now up more than 50% off its March lows, and there’s a lot of talk about the market become overextended, even frothy.
Not by a long shot, according to Ken Fisher, best-selling author and CEO of Fisher Investments, which manages about $35 billion.
Based on past history of bear markets, Fisher says the current rally is only about 50% done in terms of duration, although the steepest part of the advance has probably already occurred.
In sum, he believes in the V-shaped recovery – for the stock market: “The beginnings of bear markets are about fundamentals. The back part [is] nothing but panic,” Fisher says. “The rate of descent on the downside actually gives you the rate of ascent on the upside. It’s an almost perfect V [and] that ‘V’ runs for fully a year, always.”
That’s encouraging for those who feel like it’s too late to get in on the rally, and great news for those smart or lucky enough to buy at the bottom in March. It may, however, prove cold comfort for those who stayed long through the depths of the bear market; to his credit, Fisher freely admits in the accompanying clip that he didn’t anticipate the unrest which began a year ago this week, and was too bullish in the latter half of 2008/early 2009.