About six months ago, we remember having a discussion with a sophisticated executive who argued that ad spending never actually dropped in recessions–it just slowed down. We hope no one else is still suffering from this delusion.
FT: Worldwide advertising spending, a barometer for economic confidence, will fall 6.9 per cent in 2009 to $453bn, compared with 1 per cent growth last year, predicts ZenithOptimedia, the media buying unit of Publicis, the world’s fourth-largest advertising group.
No surprises on the hit list:
- Newspapers: -12%.
- Radio: -10%+
- Magazines: -10%+
- Television: -5.5%
The Internet will be weak but do OK. More from the FT:
Mr Barnard said the latest revisions reflected “reality crashing in” on advertisers. China and India continue to show “substantial promise”, he added. But central and eastern Europe, where ad spending had previously been expected to grow 1.5 per cent this year, is now forecast to fall 13.9 per cent. Hungary, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia will all see “substantial declines”, Mr Barnard said.
Latin America, while forecast to fall 2 per cent, is the most resilient area of the world, with the Brazilian market up 7 per cent excluding currency effects. Among the more developed markets, North America will suffer the most, losing 8.3 per cent of its value this year. Western Europe, down 6.7 per cent as a whole, will see the UK and Spain suffer the greatest falls, Zenith said.
Mr Barnard expects the global advertising market to resume modest growth in 2010 in most markets except North America.
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