140 Years Of Bull And Bear Markets

Doug Short has created a nice snapshot of 140 years of market history.  It’s a logarithmic chart, so it shows the impact of percentage rather than absolute price moves, and prices have been adjusted for inflation.  Note that the chart is price-only: It does not include the impact of dividends.

Key points:

  • Bull and bear markets have always been with us (duh)
  • The market spends about half the time above trend and half below trend (duh)
  • The market has been above trend for about 20 years (ruh roh)
  • The trough-to-peak 18-year bull market that peaked in 2000 (+666%) was the biggest in history by a mile (ruh roh)
  • In the 5-year bull market in the middle of the Great Depression (1932-1937), the S&P jumped 266% (five years is a long time–don’t want to miss that)
  • 20 years after the 1929 peak, the S&P traded at half its 1929 value (ruh roh)

And here are the moves in chart form:

Doug short has more thoughts at dshort.com >

See Also:
Today’s Bear Market Is No Longer Worse Than The Great Crash!

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