10 Housing Markets Have Hit Fair Value! Unfortunately These 8 Haven't

Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital compares the housing price level in 20 American cities to the “fair value” estimate that might be expected using the local price-to-rent ratio.

The good news: The housing markets in some cities are now distinctly undervalued.  Others, unfortunately, are still overvalued (listen up, New York).

Price-to-rent is not the only measure of housing value, and markets tend to overshoot on both sides.  But Dan’s analysis provides a reasonable sense of which housing markets are nearing the bottom and which are set up for further declines.

Here’s the quick snapshot of Dan’s conclusions:

Likely Fair Value Or Overshot 
Atlanta, GA    
Charlotte, NC                      
Chicago, IL                
Cleveland, OH                        
Dallas, TX              
Denver, CO                      
Las Vegas, NV               
Minneapolis, MN                           
Phoenix, AZ   
San Francisco, CA

Still Overvalued
Boston, MA
Los Angeles, CA
Miami, FL
New York, NY
Portland, OR  
San Diego, CA
Seattle, WA
Tampa, FL

See the encouraging and frightening details >

Let's start with the good news...

10 cities are now undervalued or at fair value, Dan Alpert of Westwood Capital estimates.

The most undervalued?

Cleveland.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

Phoenix!

Even Phoenix is finally undervalued. Not that that will stop prices from fallling anytime soon.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

Atlanta (no surprise)

Minneapolis

Charlotte

Vegas!

Still plenty of crashing to do. But at least you won't be overpaying if you take the plunge.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

San Francisco

Tech folks, take heart.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

And, Finally, Chicago...

Chicago an inch away from fair value...

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

And now for the bad news...

Even after a horrific collapse, Miami's still overvalued...

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

Tampa

So is Tampa.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

San Diego

And San Diego.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

Portland

So much for that quality of life...

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

New Yorkers, Look Out Below!

Washington's An Anomaly

Rich Obama appointees will keep prices high, Alpert estimates. (We're sceptical).

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

Detroit: Not Undervalued...Screwed

Dan thinks the Detroit market is an anomaly: The city's primary industry has collapsed.

Source: Dan Alpert, Westwood Capital

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