Last week hedge funds dumped silver, went further short Treasuries, and bought index futures.
We went through the latest Hedge Fund Monitor from Bank of America, to find notable moves by large hedge funds across various assets.
Note: Hedge funds sold soybean and corn, with corn remaining in crowded longs.
Note: BofA/ML added: 'Gold has hit our target of $1500-1600 and the long term target for next few years is $2000-3000. Since gold is not yet in a crowded long position, it still has more upside, in our view.'
Note: Bofa/ML added: 'Silver closed barely above $35... Longer-term Silver should re-challenge $50 and then target a move toward $80.'
HFs sold crude oil, Crude oil based on last Tuesday's data remained in crowded long. Given the sharp sell-off last week in crude we believe this data is too old to judge positioning
Large speculators sold crude oil to roughly $27.1bn notional from $29.0bn last week. Readings remain in a crowded record net long. These readings are old given the sharp sell-off in crude oil last week. The support range is $100-99 then $94-95. The uptrend in crude oil remains intact despite the sharp sell-off last week. Measured moves are $118-120 and then $147-150.
arge speculators marginally covered their deep crowded net short position in natural gas to about $8.8bn notional from $8.9bn last week. Natural gas is again attempting a rally -- the first target is $4.50 then $4.65. A break of $5.00 is needed to point to a possible reversal of the downtrend. Readings edged out of a crowded short for the first time since August 2010.
bought heating oil to approximately $3.9bn notional from $3.6bn notional previously. Readings are neutral.
Large speculators marginally sold gasoline futures to ~$8.5bn notional from $8.6bn last week. Readings are neutral.
Hedge funds noticeably bought Euro futures to approximately $14.8 billion net long from $10.0 billion. Readings are in a crowded long for the first time since Oct, 2009.
Note: 'Currency positions are sizable; volatility expected to continue.'
Hedge funds partially covered their shorts in US$ index to about $0.5 billion, from $0.6 billion. Readings are neutral.
Hedge funds partially covered Yen shorts last week to ~$2.9 billion, from $5.7 billion. Readings have been very volatile; they're currently neutral.
Hedge funds added to their short position in the 10Yr T-note futures to about $5.6 billion, from $3.4 billion. Readings are neutral.
Note: Hedge funds aggressively bought 2-year T-notes and partially covered 30- year T-bond shorts.
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