In investing, when everyone’s going one way, it pays to go the other way.
That’s essentially what Jeffrey Gundlach recommended during his January 14 webcast when we presented his 2014 forecasts.
Among other things, he said that gold and gold miners would be where money would be made in 2014. At the time, the median forecaster saw the yellow metal falling to $US1,220/oz this year. Gundlach said he saw gold rallying to $US1,350/oz.
It hasn’t even been a month. And the gold miners have been on a tear. The gold miners ETF (GDX) is up a whopping 9%. During this same period, the S&P 500 is down 1%. Check out this chart from Google Finance:
GDX could be doing so well right now because it did so poorly over the past year. Indeed, GDX is still down 41% from a year ago, while the S&P 500 is up 18%.
What else does Gundlach like? During the webcast, he said the value proposition of emerging market bonds was “more attractive than people say.”
He also favoured longer-term Treasuries as reflected by his expectation for the 10-year yield was to fall. This has already been playing out.
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