Jeff Gundlach doesn’t like oil.
In his latest webcast presentation delivered Tuesday, Gundlach spent a lot of time talking about oil.
And for anybody who thinks that the 70% decline in oil prices seen over the last 18 months or so means the price has to go up, Gundlach has a simple question: why?
As Gundlach sees it, the oil market is still facing a massive supply overhang while demand hasn’t kept up. Additionally, the Fed’s easy money policies allowed speculative shale plays to continue getting funding, with Gundlach noting the increase in US oil production came almost in lock-step with an increase in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
And so the story these five charts tell is not a good one for anybody betting that oil will go higher or that the market will get “fixed” anytime soon.
The change in shale drilling techniques has enabled US oil production to remain near multi-decade high despite a collapse in the number of oil rigs being used.
Supply has been outpacing demand for the last few years, leading to those massive inventory builds in charts 1 and 2.
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