DoubleLine Funds’ Jeff Gundlach hosted a pretty interesting webcast about the markets on Wednesday morning (Australian time).
As he laid out his forecasts for 2014, he presented a ton of eye-opening charts including this one, which he says he looks at literally every morning.
It compares the US dollar / emerging market currency exchange rate to the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
Gundlach noted that there was a remarkably tight correlation between the two measures with the currency cross acting as a slight leading indicator of the 10-year yield. And the 10-year yield is benchmark for basically the entire bond market.
Given the recent movements in the currencies, Gundlach says this chart confirms his expectation that the 10-year yield is likely to move lower in the near-term.
During his webcast, Gundlach said the 10-year yield could fall to as low as 2.5%.