Photo: Daisyree Bakker / Flickr
We’re beginning to think that US natural gas/energy is the most popular contrarian idea there is, if that is even possible.In the past week, we’ve heard three people who could definitely be described as being overall bearish say positive things about US domestic energy.
First there was Jeff Gundlach, who overall has a very negative picture about the US economy, but who says he likes a short Apple/long natural gas trade, while saying that natural gas is one of the most bullish things going for the US economy.
Then there’s this from Hugh Hendry’s big letter to shareholders:
This might be the year everyone else notices this; the year panic over Chinese economic growth comes to replace the market’s morbid fascination with the travails of the European continent and the year in which we see that the US is not giving way to China in terms of global economic leadership. There is a near consensus that China will supplant America this decade. We do not believe this. We are more bullish on US growth than most. The momentous nature of recent advances in shale oil and gas extraction and America’s acceptance of the unpleasantness of debt and labour price restructuring looks to us as if it is creating yet another historic turning point.
And then there’s Sean Corrigan of Diapason. He’s not as famous as the others, but he’s got a cult following thanks to his acerbic, Austrian economic commentary.
This is from his latest Material Evidence note:
Shale gas has driven real domestic prices to 20-year lows and has begun to bring forth plans to export some of the glut, while the production of associated liquids, together with more conventional drilling success has cut oil and product imports by a quarter; has quadrupled exports, and has thereby reduced the net call on world oil by almost a half — to a two decade low — in less than 6 years.
Taking all this into account — and acknowledging that it may not be the most unqualified endorsement — it does appear as if the states is the least sick of all the major countries at the moment.
One week: Three big bearish names all saying virtually the exact same thing.
That’s a trend!