If you’re a bull, what are you hoping to see when the unemployment number is released at 8:30?
Consensus is that the jobless rate remained steady at 10.2%, and that a payroll decline of 125,000 will prove to be the slimmest fall since March 2008.
Others, like JPMorgan see the jobless rate hitting 10.4%.
The JPMorgan number may be more bullish, medium-term, if it means more stimulus, and looser money out of the Fed.
In fact, the latest economic data has not been particularly pretty, and we may see cheap money and stimulus no matter what. The services sector is contracting. Global manufacturing activity is slipping. The Case-Shiller number disappointed.
As John Hussman recently noted, we’ve definitely gone from reports that surprised on the upside, to reports that surprised on the downside. Granted, we don’t want a severe double dip. But a tepid, in-and-out recovery may be just what the doctor ordered.
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